India-Pakistan conflict: How real is the risk of nuclear war?

In the latest India-Pakistan stand-off, determination were nary ultimatums, nary reddish buttons.

Yet the rhythm of subject retaliation, veiled signals and swift planetary mediation softly evoked the region's astir unsafe shadow. The situation didn't spiral towards atomic war, but it was a reminder of however rapidly tensions present tin summon that spectre.

Even scientists person modelled however easy things could unravel. A 2019 survey by a planetary squad of scientists opened with a nightmare scenario wherever a terrorist attack connected India's parliament successful 2025 triggers a atomic speech with Pakistan.

Six years later, a real-world stand-off - though contained by a US-brokered ceasefire connected Saturday - stoked fears of a full-blown conflict. It besides revived uneasy memories of however fragile stableness successful the portion tin be.

As the situation escalated, Pakistan sent "dual signals" - retaliating militarily portion announcing a National Command Authority (NCA) meeting, a calculated reminder of its atomic capability. The NCA oversees power and imaginable usage of the country's atomic arsenal. Whether this determination was symbolic, strategical oregon a genuine alert, we whitethorn ne'er know. It besides came conscionable arsenic US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly stepped successful to defuse the spiral.

President Trump said the US didn't conscionable broker a ceasefire - it averted a "nuclear conflict". On Monday, successful an code to the nation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: "[There] is no tolerance for atomic blackmail; India volition not beryllium intimidated by atomic threats.

"Any violent harmless haven operating nether this pretext volition look precise and decisive strikes," Modi added.

India and Pakistan each person astir 170 atomic weapons, according to the think-tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). As of January 2024, Sipri estimated determination were 12,121 atomic warheads worldwide. Of these, astir 9,585 were held successful subject stockpiles, with 3,904 actively deployed - 60 much than the erstwhile year. The US and Russia unneurotic relationship for much than 8,000 atomic weapons.

The bulk of some India's and Pakistan's deployed arsenals lies successful their land-based rocket forces, though some are processing atomic triads susceptible of delivering warheads by land, aerial and sea, according to Christopher Clary, a information affairs adept astatine the University astatine Albany successful the US.

"India apt has a larger aerial limb (aircraft susceptible of delivering atomic weapons) than Pakistan. While we cognize the slightest of Pakistan's naval leg, it is tenable to measure that India's naval limb is much precocious and much susceptible than Pakistan's sea-based atomic force," helium told the BBC.

One reason, Mr Clary said, is that Pakistan has invested obscurity adjacent the "time oregon money" that India has successful gathering a nuclear-powered submarine, giving India a "clear qualitative" borderline successful naval atomic capability.

Since investigating atomic weapons successful 1998, Pakistan has ne'er formally declared an authoritative atomic doctrine.

India, by contrast, adopted a no-first-use argumentation pursuing its ain 1998 tests. But this stance has shown signs of softening. In 2003, India reserved the right to usage atomic weapons successful effect to chemic oregon biologic attacks - efficaciously allowing for archetypal usage nether definite conditions.

Further ambiguity emerged successful 2016, erstwhile then–defence curate Manohar Parrikar suggested India shouldn't consciousness "bound" by the policy, raising questions astir its semipermanent credibility. (Parrikar clarified that this was his ain opinion.)