Nitish Kumar’s Waqf Gamble: For JDU, The Answer Lies In The Numbers

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Last Updated:April 02, 2025, 09:12 IST

The Bihar main minister, a seasoned governmental strategist, succeeded in convincing the BJP astir the governmental sensitivity connected with the issue, particularly successful an predetermination year

Nitish Kumar wisely balanced his Muslim ballot basal portion upholding conjugation responsibility. (PTI)

JD(U)’s consent to the projected signifier of Waqf Bill has present made it amply wide that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has cautiously navigated a contentious governmental contented up of the assembly elections successful the state.

Kumar wisely balanced his Muslim ballot basal portion upholding conjugation responsibility. Instead of outrightly opposing the Bill, the enactment took a nuanced stance by pushing it for the JPC and besides expressing concerns implicit its retrospective impact. This calculated attack ensures it retains its ain Muslim enactment portion preventing immoderate probable displacement toward the RJD. And, helium did it each without jeopardising its confederation dynamics.

Speaking to News18, a elder JD(U) person said: “The archetypal measurement Nitish Kumar took was convincing the BJP’s cardinal enactment to hold connected the JPC. Sending a Bill to the JPC instantly implies that the authorities is unfastened for scrutiny. The JPC included members from each governmental parties, truthful the onus is connected everyone. Nitish-ji besides instructed our MPs to beryllium vocal astir the retrospective effect and the authorities agreed connected that."

The leader, adjacent to Kumar, added: “Nitish-ji has ever remained committed to his values of socialism and secularism. He is successful favour of protecting the minority. Has anyone heard of immoderate communal riots successful Bihar station 2005? He has made definite that bid stays here."

JDU’s Sharp Manoeuvring

Kumar’s superior interest was not the imaginable nonaccomplishment of Muslim votes but the hazard of those votes migrating to the RJD, his main governmental rival.

Rajeev Ranjan Prasad, JD(U)’s nationalist spokesperson, said successful a statement: “A delegation of important and influential Muslim leaders met Nitish Kumar-ji and expressed their interest implicit the Waqf Bill. He instructed our MP Dileswar Kamait, who was a subordinate of the JPC, to rise these issues. And helium did so. We judge that Nitish-ji’s proposition would beryllium taken. In the lawsuit of Bihar, Nitish-ji has besides been just to the number community. We ne'er witnessed immoderate riot oregon curfew successful the state."

The Bill, that is scheduled to beryllium tabled connected Wednesday, seeks to bring reforms to the absorption of Waqf properties. However, it has stirred a statement owed to its retrospective provisions. Even though galore governmental parties, including JD(U), admit the request for reform, the retrospective facet raised concerns, particularly successful a authorities similar Bihar, wherever spiritual sensitivities play a important relation successful electoral outcomes.

Kumar, a seasoned governmental strategist, succeeded successful convincing the BJP astir the governmental sensitivity connected with the issue, particularly successful an predetermination year. The main curate has agelong been maintaining a delicate equilibrium of appealing to assorted societal and spiritual groups.

However, his caution implicit the retrospective clauses of the upcoming Waqf Bill stemmed from the fig crunching astatine play.

His superior interest was not astir losing the Muslim ballot per se, arsenic helium has cultivated a estimation of supporting number rights implicit the years. The existent interest was astir a imaginable displacement of Muslim votes from JD(U) to RJD, which could weaken his presumption successful the upcoming elections.

Numbers Tell The Tale

Going by the census and authorities data, lone 1 territory successful Bihar—Kishanganj—is Muslim‐majority. This territory contributes astir 3 assembly constituencies (Kishanganj, Thakurganj, and Bahadurganj) wherever Muslims signifier much than 50 per cent of the electorate. However, from a governmental perspective, that is not all. Muslims successful Bihar are an influential elector basal and tin plaything elections.

As governmental analysts talk of “Muslim‐dominated" seats successful Bihar, they often notation to the larger Seemanchal region—which includes parts of Purnia, Katihar, Araria, successful summation to Kishanganj.

In this full region, which accounts for astir 24-25 assembly seats, Muslims typically signifier a decisive ballot slope (averaging astir 40–47 per cent of the population) truthful that adjacent erstwhile they aren’t an outright majority, their votes are captious successful determining the electoral outcome.

According to a study by ADRI (Asian Development Research Institute) connected the demography and societal conditions of marginal communities crossed Seemanchal, published successful 2024, the Muslim assemblage roseate higher than earlier successful presumption of percentage. The report—Social-Economic Status of Marginalised Communities In The Seemanchal Region— stated that astir 60.66 per cent of households were Muslim, and 39.34 per cent were Hindus successful the region. Of Muslims, astir 43.32 per cent of Muslim households belonged to Extreme Backward Classes (EBCs), portion 24.92 per cent of Hindu households were EBCs. This study presents a important script of the portion and the challenges.

Thus, Kumar’s nuanced presumption connected the Waqf Bill is simply a tactical determination aimed astatine securing his governmental turf successful the look of Bihar’s analyzable caste and spiritual dynamics.

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First Published:

April 02, 2025, 09:10 IST

News elections Nitish Kumar’s Waqf Gamble: For JDU, The Answer Lies In The Numbers