One month since Indus Waters Treaty suspension: What satellite images reveal

It’s been a period since India enactment the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) connected hold pursuing the horrific panic attack successful Pahalgam connected April 22. So, however is this suspension truly affecting Pakistan?

River travel information and geospatial grounds suggest that the authorities has made flushing of dams a regular workout successful the past month.

India Today's Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) squad has identified a wide signifier astatine India's dams connected the Chenab and Jhelum rivers: filling the reservoirs to its capacity, past force-flushing silt to wide them out. This signifier not lone clears sediment but besides boosts hydroelectric powerfulness generation.

We reviewed outer images and h2o inflow information implicit 30 days astatine the past dam successful India and the archetypal successful Pakistan connected Chenab and Jhelum rivers. The thought is to observe immoderate displacement successful h2o management. For instance, if India opens the sluice gates of a dam, the h2o level downstream successful Pakistan should besides rise.

Water inflow information from Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) for the Marala Dam — the archetypal regularisation constituent connected the Chenab aft it enters Pakistan — shows a crisp driblet successful h2o levels followed by a abrupt spike.

The outflow of h2o astatine Marala Dam – the complaint astatine which h2o is released from the dam – stood astatine 14,800 cusecs erstwhile IWT was suspended , dropped to 8,087 cusecs connected May 2, surged to 55,148 cusecs connected May 3, and past fell sharply to conscionable 3,761 cusecs by May 6. The outflow spiked again to 18,331 cusecs connected May 9, earlier dropping to 3,470 cusecs by May 16 and past peaked to 20,648 connected May 20.

Satellite images of the Baglihar Dam connected the Indian broadside amusement flushing operations underway connected May 1, matching some quality reports and a disposable alteration successful stream h2o colour connected the imagery indicating mud and sediments. Over the adjacent 10 days, the dam’s gates remained closed until a abrupt merchandise connected May 11. A akin signifier was observed the pursuing week.

Reservoir flushing, typically done annually, clears sediment buildup to reconstruct retention capacity, boost turbine efficiency, and widen the beingness of hydroelectric plants.

Before the suspension of the IWT, Pakistan routinely objected to this practice, arsenic the flushing of silt and sediments not lone increases downstream travel but tin besides perchance artifact irrigation canals. Conversely, refilling the reservoir by closing the gates tin alteration the stream h2o travel downstream for a abbreviated period.

While determination are nary drastic fluctuations successful h2o levels astatine Pakistan’s Mangla dam connected the Jhelum river, information indicates periods of accrued flow, apt resulting from upstream flushing activities by Indian authorities.

Satellite images from the European Space Agency amusement the gates of the Kishanganga dam – the archetypal large dam connected the Jhelum’s tributary – afloat unfastened connected April 29. Over the adjacent week, lone 1 gross remained unfastened until it was yet closed connected May 21. Kishanganga, a run-of-the-river hydroelectric project, has a constricted reservoir capableness of conscionable 18.8 cardinal cubic meters.

No wide signifier was observed implicit the period connected the Indus River, arsenic India presently has nary operational retention dams connected this stretch.

LONG-TERM PLANS

As portion of semipermanent plans to utilise the waters of the rivers covered nether the IWT, 4 further powerfulness plants are proposed, which volition let India to utilise much h2o from the occidental rivers done associated reservoirs.

The roadmap besides outlines the revival of the long-stalled Tulbul navigation task connected the Jhelum, enhancements to Wular Lake and the Jhelum stream for improved flood control, assistance irrigation projects to accelerate h2o utilisation, and the optimised usage of the Ranbir and Pratap canals to guarantee greater h2o availability for the Jammu region.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has written to India expressing its willingness to restart dialog regarding renegotiating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which India has kept successful abeyance pursuing the Pahalgam panic attack. However, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has firmly stated that the suspension volition stay successful spot “until Pakistan credibly and irreversibly ends cross-border terrorism.”